Quality Schools fo Cleveland's Kids

This webpage provides an overview on how enrollment across District and charter schools is forecast to change over the next five years, as well as how students are choosing among their school options. It is a helpful starting point to explore how many schools are needed in each area of the city in the future.

K-8 ENROLLMENT AND SCHOOL CHOICE: CITYWIDE SUMMARY

Forecast Change in Enrollment by 2022-23 for K-8 District and Charter Schools

K-8 enrollment across both District and charter schools is forecast to decline by 3.9%, or 1,474 students, by 2022-23.
The forecast shows large variances by region, with growth in West and Southwest and large declines in Northeast and Near West.

graph showing most students in schools that are rated as a C, D or F.

SOURCE: Forecast calculated by Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Researchers, November 2018,
based on student residence, not school of attendance

Proportion of K-8 Students Enrolled in District Versus Charter or Private School Options

In 2017-18, 19,228 students who live in Cleveland attended either a charter or private K-8 school, which represents 45% of all students in the city of Cleveland.
The Northeast region has the lowest proportion of families choosing District schools (51%), while the Near West region has the highest.

SOURCE: 2017-18 geo-coded K-8 studentlevel data provided by CMSD for CMSD,
charters and private EdChoice & Cleveland Choice scholarships

K-8 SUMMARY BY REGION

Northeast

Enrollment by School Type for Northeast Region residents

When combining students across sectors, K-8 enrollment declined 8.4% from 2013 to 2017, with charter schools declining by 4% and the District declining by 12%.
Combined K-8 enrollment is forecast to decline 8.6% by 2022-23, the largest decline of any region.
Only 51% of K-8 students residing in the Northeast region attend District schools over other options. This is the lowest rate of any region.
Of the students that do attend District schools, 81% attend a school within the region, the highest rate of any region.

East

Enrollment by School Type for East Region residents

While overall enrollment declined from 2013 to 2017, District schools experienced a 7% enrollment increase, due to large charter enrollment declines.
Combined K-8 enrollment is forecast to decline 120 students, or 2.4%, by 2022-23 with the decline split between charter and District schools.
60% of K-8 students residing in the East region attend District schools over other options.
50% of students residing in the East region choose to attend a District or charter school outside the region. This is the highest rate of any region.

Southeast

Enrollment by School Type for Southeast Region residents

District K-8 enrollment declined 8.6% from 2013 to 2017, while charter schools gained 120 students.
Combined K-8 enrollment is forecast to decline 240 students, or 3%, by 2022-23 with the decline split between charter and District schools.
Only 52% of K-8 students residing in the Southeast region attend District schools over other options. This is among the lowest rates of any region.
Of students attending District schools, 77% stay in the region which is among the highest rates of any region.

Near West

Enrollment by School Type for Near West Region residents

Near West K-8 enrollment declined by 7.9% from 2013 to 2017, with the decline split between District and charter schools.
Combined K-8 enrollment is forecast to decline another 450 students, or 7.9%, by 2022-23 with the decline split between charter and District schools.
62% of K-8 students residing in the Near West region attend District schools over other options. This is highest rate of any region.
Despite the relative higher performance of schools in the region, 30% of students are leaving the region to either a District or charter school.

West

Enrollment by School Type for West Region residents

West K-8 population grew by 130 students, or 2%, from 2013 to 2017. District schools experienced all of this gain, while charters slightly declined.
The combined West K-8 enrollment is forecast to stay flat through 2022-23 with no significant shifts between charter and District share.
56% of K-8 students residing in the West Region are choosing District schools. Of these, only 55% choose to stay within West region, the lowest rate of any region.
39% of students residing in the West region choose to attend a District or charter school outside the region, the second highest rate of any region behind the East region.

Southwest

Enrollment by School Type for Southwest Region residents

Southwest K-8 population grew by 40 students, or 1%, from 2013 to 2017. Both charter and District schools experienced slight increases.
The combined Southwest K-8 enrollment is forecast to grow by an additional 170 students, or 3.4%, by 2022-23, with the growth split between charter and District schools.
Despite having the highest-performing District schools, only 39% of students residing in the region attend a District school in the region, one of the lower rates.
The Southwest region has the highest rate of attendance at private schools (20%) and among the lowest rate of students choosing out of region District or charter options (24%).

NOTE: PreK enrollment excluded from analysis; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding

SOURCE: 2017-18 geo-coded K-8 student-level data provided by CMSD for CMSD, charters and private EdChoice & Cleveland Choice scholarships

Forecast Change in Enrollment by 2022-23 for High School District and Charter Schools

Enrollment across both District and charter schools is forecasted to increase by 0.7%, or 113 students, by 2022-23.
The forecast shows large variances by region, with growth in West and Southwest, though large declines in the Northeast.

graph showing enrollment increasing in the west and decreasing in the east.

SOURCE: Forecast calculated by Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Researchers, November 2018

Proportion of High School Students in 2017-18 Enrolled in District Versus Charter or Private School Options

In 2017-18, 7,599 students who live in the District attended either a charter or private high school, which represents 43% of students.

graph showing between 58 and 61 % os students attending a District school versus a charter or private

SOURCE: 2017-18 geo-coded high school enrollment data provided by CMSD for CMSD, charters and private EdChoice & Cleveland Choice Scholarships

HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND SCHOOL CHOICE:
SUMMARY BY REGION

Northeast, East and Southeast

graph showing 58 CMSD, 31 charter and 11% Private

When combining students across sectors in these regions, the high school enrollment declined 10% from 2013 to 2017.
High school population is forecast to decline 130 students, or 2%, by 2022-23 with the decline split between District and charter schools in these regions. The Northeast is forecasted to decline by 6.1% while the East and Southeast are relatively flat.
58% of high school students residing on the east side attend District schools over other options, inline with 57% of high school students residing on the west side who attend District schools.
Of students attending District schools, 89% of east side residents stay east of the river, which is in line with attendance patterns on the west side of Cleveland.

SOURCE: 2017-18 geo-coded high school enrollment data provided by CMSD for District, charters and private EdChoice or Cleveland Scholarship Program

Near West, West and Southwest

graph showing 57 CMSD, 28 Charter and 15% Private

When combining students across sectors, high school enrollment increased 2% in these regions from 2013 to 2017, although the District experienced a slight decline.
High school enrollment is forecast to increase by over 500 students, or 7%, by 2022-23 with both sectors projected to experience growth. The Southwest and West are forecasted to have significant increases while the Near West is forecasted to decline by 2.3%.
57% of high school students residing on the west side attend District schools over other options, in-line with 58% of high school students residing on the east side who attend District schools.
Of students attending District schools, 85% of west side residents stay on the west side of Cleveland. This rate is in line with attendance patterns for high school students on the east side.

SOURCE: 2017-18 geo-coded high school enrollment data provided by CMSD for District, charters and private EdChoice or Cleveland Scholarship Program

ENROLLMENT AND SCHOOL CHOICE

K-8 ENROLLMENT AND SCHOOL CHOICE: CITYWIDE SUMMARY